Survey of expectations - M14

Released
06 November 2017 03:00 p.m.
Next release
14 February 2018 03:00 p.m.
Source
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Periodicity
Quarterly
Annual CPI growth (%) Perception of monetary conditions (Net %)
Date 1 year out 2 years out End of current quarter Next quarter 1 year out
Previous years:
Dec 2015 1.51 1.85 -53.20 -62.90 -59.70
Dec 2016 1.29 1.68 -57.70 -50.00 -53.80
Quarterly:
Mar 2017 1.56 1.92 -50.00 -46.90 -29.70
Jun 2017 1.92 2.17 -62.30 -60.40 -39.60
Sep 2017 1.77 2.09 -48.90 -40.40 -14.90
Dec 2017 1.87 2.02 -45.70 -45.70 -23.90

The Data: Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness

Coverage characteristics

This survey is conducted in February, May, August and November by The Nielsen Company for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The data includes perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

The survey results are published as the "Survey of Expectations".

Periodicity

Quarterly

Timeliness

Data is released in the first or second week of the second month of the quarter.

Access by the public

Statistics release calendar

The Statistics Release Calendar provides a long-term plan of scheduled releases. It is updated and released on the first working day of the month.

Integrity

Dissemination of terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced, including confidentiality of individual responses

The results of the survey represent expectations held by the respondents and in no way represent the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank. To preserve anonymity, each respondent is assigned a unique numeric code by Nielsen. The Reserve Bank has no information linking codes to respondent names.

Provision of information about revisions and advance notice of major changes in methodology

The survey does not get revised. Respondents are notified of changes to the survey questionnaire, prior to them participating in the current survey. For example, this may include an explanation of a new or replacement variable for which the respondent's expectation is being sought.

Quality

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics

The questions asked can be found in the survey template.

Dissemination of statistics that support statistical cross-checks and provide assurance of reasonableness

The survey results are published on the Reserve Bank's website. Other estimates of inflation expectations are published in the ANZ Business Outlook Survey and Aon Economists Survey.

The Reserve Bank Survey of Expectations asks respondents questions relating to perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

A copy of the survey template is available here.

Monetary conditions (net %)

This attempts to capture respondents' broad perceptions of current monetary policy settings and their expectations of the future stance of policy in one quarter's time and one year out.

Prices

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) as published by Statistics New Zealand for all groups is the most widely recognised and understood measure of inflation. Expectations of the annual percentage change ("the headline rate") one and two years out (from the last known actual) are collected. Expectations of the annual percentage change for a longer outlook of five and ten years out are also collected (from September 2017). Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in the CPI were collected but have been discontinued in June 2017.

Interest rates

The survey collects expectations of the 10 year government bond yield traded in the domestic money market at the end of the current quarter and one year out. Expectations of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for the same horizon are also collected (from September 2017). The expectations for the 90 day bank bill yield were discontinued in June 2017.

Exchange rates

Expectations of the US dollar and Australian dollar currencies are collected. It is assumed that businesses involved in transactions with other countries probably form expectations of future currency movements against those countries. The mid-rate, foreign currency/NZ (i.e. how much foreign currency one NZ dollar is worth, e.g. US $0.75 cents = NZ$1.00) exchange rate is asked for the end of the next quarter as well as for one year out.

Growth

Expectations of the measure of real domestic economic activity are collected for the annual average percentage change in the real GDP production one and two years out. Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the seasonally adjusted quarterly percentage change in real production based GDP as reported by Statistics New Zealand were collected but have been discontinued in June 2017.

Labour market

Expectations about the change in average hourly earnings (private sector, ordinary time) as reported in Statistics New Zealand's Quarterly Employment Survey. This is a commonly used measure of private sector salary and wage movements. The expected annual percentage change for the coming year and the next year is collected.

Expectations of the unemployment rate as measured by Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). The official HLFS measure is based on international Labour Organisation Standards and is the only measure of the unemployment rate in New Zealand recognised as being internationally comparable. Individuals are designated under this definition, as being unemployed only if they are actively seeking work and are available to start work.

Housing prices

Expectations of the annual percentage change in the Quotable Value Quarterly House price Index for one and two years out are collected (from September 2017). The QV Quarterly House Price Index measures the movement in house prices for local council areas throughout New Zealand, providing an indicator of capital growth.

Roll-out of new Excel file format

On 22 November 2017 we will change the format of all current Excel from .xls to .xlsx.

A file with the XLS extension is a Microsoft Excel 97-2003 Worksheet file. Later versions of Excel save spreadsheet files in the XLSX format. This change in format is required as the XLS format is becoming obsolete.

Initially we will not change the format of the Excel files that are no longer current or updated, e.g. discontinued statistics. We will look to apply the format change to these files over the next few months.

We are not changing the presentation of the data in the Excel files.

If you have any questions please contact stats-info@rbnz.govt.nz.

15 November 2017

Changes to survey questions

The Reserve Bank has reviewed the use of the Survey of Expectations (M14). Taking feedback received following consultation last year into consideration changes have been made to the survey questions. Questions on price inflation expectations have been added and questions that are not widely used have been discontinued.

The new series can now be found on the M14 historical excel file.

The discontinued series can be found on the discontinued statistics section on our website under economic indicators.

The question changes are as follows:

 

Currently collected

Change

Prices - The Consumers Price Index (CPI) as published by Statistics New Zealand for all groups

Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in the CPI.

Remove: Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter.

Expectations of the annual percentage change one and two years out.

Addition: Longer outlook with five and ten year expectations.

Interest rates - expectations of short and long-term interest rates on securities traded in the domestic money market

Expectations for the 90 day bank bill and the 10-year government bond market yield both at the end of the current quarter and one year out.

Replace expectations of short-term interest rates (90 day bank bill) with same horizon Official Cash Rate (OCR) expectation.

Growth – expectations of change in real production-based gross domestic product (GDP)

Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in GDP.

Remove: Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter.

Expectations of the annual percentage change one and two years out.

No change

Housing prices –change in house prices measured by the Quotable Value Quarterly House Price Index

None

Addition: Expectations of the annual percentage change one and two years out.

If you have any questions, please contact us at stats-info@rbnz.govt.nz.

6 November 2017

Symbols and conventions for summary table

0 Value rounded to zero
- Zero or not applicable
.. Not available
bold Revised/new
italics Provisional
light red background Historical

General notes

  • Individual figures may not sum to the totals due to rounding
  • Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers
  • You are free to copy, distribute and adapt these statistics subject to the conditions listed on our copyright page.