Survey of expectations - M14

Released
05 May 2017 03:00 p.m.
Next release
07 August 2017 03:00 p.m.
Source
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Periodicity
Quarterly
Quarterly CPI growth (%) Annual CPI growth (%) Perception of monetary conditions (Net %)
Date End of current quarter Next quarter 1 year out 2 years out End of current quarter Next quarter 1 year out
Previous years:
Jun 2015 0.32 0.41 1.32 1.85 -36.80 -42.10 -42.10
Jun 2016 0.33 0.37 1.22 1.64 -55.80 -65.40 -63.50
Quarterly:
Sep 2016 0.34 0.27 1.26 1.65 -53.80 -63.50 -67.30
Dec 2016 0.23 0.35 1.29 1.68 -57.70 -50.00 -53.80
Mar 2017 0.47 0.46 1.56 1.92 -50.00 -46.90 -29.70
Jun 2017 0.41 0.53 1.92 2.17 -62.30 -60.40 -39.60

The Data: Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness

Coverage characteristics

This survey is conducted in February, May, August and November by The Nielsen Company for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The data includes perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

The survey results are published on the RBNZ website as the "Survey of Expectations".

Periodicity

Quarterly

Timeliness

Data is released in the third or fourth week of the second month of the quarter.

Access by the public

Statistics release calendar

The "Statistics Release Calendar" is updated and released on the last working day of the month. This is a long-term plan of scheduled releases.

Integrity

Dissemination of terms and conditions under which official statistics are produced, including confidentiality of individual responses

The results of the survey represent expectations held by the respondents and in no way represent the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank. To preserve anonymity, each respondent is assigned a unique numeric code by Nielsen. The Reserve Bank has no information linking codes to respondent names.

Provision of information about revisions and advance notice of major changes in methodology

The survey does not get revised. Respondents are notified of changes to the survey questionnaire, prior to them participating in the current survey. For example, this may include an explanation of a new or replacement variable for which the respondent's expectation is being sought.

Quality

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics

The questions asked can be found in the survey template.

Dissemination of statistics that support statistical cross-checks and provide assurance of reasonableness

The survey results are published on the Reserve Bank's website. Other estimates of inflation expectations are published in the ANZ Business Outlook Survey and Aon Economists Survey.

The Reserve Bank Survey of Expectations asks respondents questions relating to perceptions and expectations on Monetary Conditions, Consumer Price Index, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Payments, Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. Apart from the monetary conditions questions, the survey asks respondents to provide quantitative expectations for these variables.

A copy of the survey template is available here.

Monetary conditions (net %)

This attempts to capture respondents' broad perceptions of current monetary policy settings and their expectations of the future stance of policy in one quarter's time and one year out.

Prices

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) as published by Statistics New Zealand for all groups is the most widely recognised and understood measure of inflation. Expectations for both the current quarter and the next quarter of the quarterly percentage change in the CPI are collected. Expectations of the annual percentage change ("the headline rate") one and two years out (from the last known actual) are also collected.

Interest rates

The survey collects expectations of interest rates and, in particular, those for short (90 day bank bill) and long (10 year government bond) interest rates on securities traded in the domestic money market. Specifically, the survey asks for expectations of yields determined in the secondary market expressed in per annum terms and is not the expected coupon rate.

Exchange rates

Expectations of the US dollar and Australian dollar currencies are collected. It is assumed that businesses involved in transactions with other countries probably form expectations of future currency movements against those countries. The mid-rate, foreign currency/NZ (i.e. how much foreign currency one NZ dollar is worth, e.g. US $0.75 cents = NZ$1.00) exchange rate is asked for the end of the next quarter as well as for one year out.

Growth

Expectations of the measure of real domestic economic activity are collected for the current quarter and also for the preceding quarter. The latter is a result of the four-month collection of the publication lag of the quarterly real GDP production. Specifically, the survey requests the seasonally adjusted quarterly percentage change in real production based GDP as reported by Statistics New Zealand and the annual average percentage change in the real GDP production one and two years out.

Labour market

Expectations about the change in average hourly earnings (private sector, ordinary time) as reported in Statistics New Zealand's Quarterly Employment Survey. This is a commonly used measure of private sector salary and wage movements. The expected annual percentage change for the coming year and the next year is collected.

Expectations of the unemployment rate as measured by Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). The official HLFS measure is based on international Labour Organisation Standards and is the only measure of the unemployment rate in New Zealand recognised as being internationally comparable. Individuals are designated under this definition, as being unemployed only if they are actively seeking work and are available to start work.

Symbols and conventions

0 Value rounded to zero
- Zero or not applicable
.. Not available
bold Revised/new
italics Provisional

General notes

  • Individual figures may not sum to the totals due to rounding
  • Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers
  • You are free to copy, distribute and adapt these statistics subject to the conditions listed on our copyright page.