Reserve Bank's Macro Model (FPS)
Introduction | Overview of FPS | FPS Related Research | Small Model Research: Programmes and Data
At the core of the Reserve Bank's Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) is a general equilibrium macro model with around 30 key behavioural variables. The model is used to help formulate the Bank's economic projections, and is also used in a variety of research applications.
Introduction
The Reserve Bank's forecasting and policy system (PDF 321KB)
This pamphlet provides a non-technical description of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's macroeconomic model, the Forecasting and Policy System (FPS). It explains how FPS is used in the Bank's projection process, and addresses a few key issues surrounding FPS.
August 2004
Overview of FPS
The forecasting and policy system: an introduction (PDF 977KB)
Authors: Richard Black, Vincenzo Cassino, Aaron Drew, Eric Hansen, Ben Hunt, David Rose and Alasdair Scott
Source: RB Bulletin, Vol. 60 No. 3, & Research Paper No. 43, August 1997
The forecasting and policy system: the core model (PDF 679KB)
Authors: Richard Black, Vincenzo Cassino, Aaron Drew, Eric Hansen, Ben Hunt, David Rose and Alasdair Scott
Source: Research Paper No. 43, August 1997
The forecasting and policy system: stochastic simulations of the core model (PDF 169KB)
Authors: Aaron Drew and Ben Hunt
Source: Discussion Paper, G98/6
The forecasting and policy system: preparing economic projections (PDF 122KB)
Authors: Aaron Drew and Ben Hunt
Source: Discussion Paper, G98/7
FPS Related Research
The forecasting and policy system: demand-side satellite models (PDF 389KB)
Authors: Enzo Cassino and Jim Breece
Source: Discussion Paper, G98/3
Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: fixed-instrument versus MCI based strategies (PDF 363KB)
Author: Ben Hunt
Source: Discussion Paper, G99/1
Exchange rate effects and inflation targeting in a small open economy: stochastic analysis using FPS (PDF 97KB)
Authors: Paul Conway, Aaron Drew, Ben Hunt and Alasdair Scott
Source: Discussion Paper, G99/4
Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of uncertainty about potential outputs (PDF 121KB)
Authors: Aaron Drew and Ben Hunt
Source: Discussion Paper, G99/5
SDS-FPS: A small demand-side version of the forecasting and policy system core model (PDF 286KB)
Author: David Hargreaves
Source: Discussion Paper, G99/10
Uncertainty about the length of the monetary transmission lag: implications for monetary policy (PDF 175KB)
Author: Yuong Ha
Source: Discussion Paper, DP2000/01
A comparison of the properties of NZM and FPS (PDF 399KB)
Author: Aaron Drew
Source: Discussion Paper, DP2000/02
Forecasting at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (PDF 93KB)
Authors: Aaron Drew and Michael Frith
Source: RB Bulletin, Vol. 61, No. 4, 1998
The Reserve Bank's role in the recent business cycle: actions and evolution (PDF 184KB)
Authors: Aaron Drew and Adrian Orr
Source: RB Bulletin, Vol. 62, No. 1, 1999
Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty (PDF 411KB)
Authors: Victor Gaiduch and Ben Hunt
Source: Discussion Paper, DP2000/08
Small Model Research: Programmes and Data
This GAUSS code implements an empirical model of a small open economy. The code is based on a model developed in Svensson (1998), but is modified to account for NZ conditions. The model has been developed for policy analysis in conjunction with the Bank's core FPS model. Please note that there may be errors in this code that the Bank's staff are not yet aware of. Neither the Reserve Bank nor its staff accepts responsibility for any use of this code by external parties.
· Read me file (TXT file 1KB)
· File 1 (PRC file 5KB)
· File 2 (PRC file 3KB)
· File 3 (PRC file 4KB)
· File 4 (PRC file 5KB)
· File 5 (PRC file 5KB)
· File 6 (PRG file 24KB)
· File 7 (OUT file 3KB)
· File 8 (DLL file 411KB)
TROLL files to run small demand-side version of FPS (see Discussion Paper G99/10).
· Run file (SRC file 27KB)
· Model code (SRC file 10KB)
· Model data code (SRC file 24KB)
· Filter code (SRC file 6KB)
Data for FPS control solution (see Research Paper No 43)
· Excel spreadsheet (XLS file 87KB)
Historical data for FPS as at February 2001 (see Discussion Paper G98/7)
· Excel spreadsheet (XLS file 741KB)
